Showing posts with label OECD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OECD. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

IEA warns oil price rally may lead to global slowdown

The agency said preliminary data for January and February suggested that high oil prices may have started to dent demand growth.

Sky-high oil prices are beginning to dent oil demand growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday adding prices could ultimately moderate through a global economic slowdown.

“Most analysts see a more formal OPEC policy response as unlikely... That leaves a less palatable route to price moderation -- namely economic slow-down and weaker demand growth,” the agency said in its monthly report.

“There are real risks however that a sustained, $100 per barrel plus price environment will prove incompatible with the currently expected pace of economic recovery,” it added.

The agency said preliminary data for January and February suggested that high oil prices may have started to dent demand growth. It, however, kept its 2011 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day or 1.6%.

The IEA said tight global supply was its another major concern as the global oil output fell by around 0.7 million barrels per day in March to 88.27 million bpd due to civil war in Libya. OPEC crude supply fell by 0.88 million bpd alone.

“Hypothetically, if global supply were to chug along at March levels for the rest of 2011, OECD inventory could slip to near five-year lows by December,” it said.

However, the IEA said it believed OPEC spare capacity stood at a comfortable level of 3.91 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 3.2 million alone.


Saturday, April 2, 2011

Let's look at all the evidence from top educators abroad

Michael Gove is keen to see what we have to learn from education systems internationally, but the lessons may not be as straightforward as he thinks, says Valerie Hannon

Last week I saw a report that a US congresswoman wanted to change the official value of pi to precisely 3 as a way to help US 15-year-olds, after they came 25th in maths in the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's world study. The story was a hilarious spoof, but it well illustrates the strength of feeling about these global rankings.

Recently Michael Gove has stressed the importance of comparing education systems internationally, as seen in the OECD's Pisa studies, and of learning from the most successful nations. But what should our response be?

The education secretary enthuses about Andreas Schleicher, of the OECD, calling him the "most important man in English education" for the insights his work confers. Schleicher's analysis, according to Gove, shows, first, that "we [England] are falling further and further behind other nations"; and second, that the key to success is "to recruit the best possible people into teaching and provide them with high-quality training and professional development". This is true – as far as it goes. But it is a partial analysis.

What else have successful systems to tell us about the issues we face today? Schleicher's work demonstrates compellingly that demand for the competencies 20th-century school systems were good at imparting (routine cognitive and manual skills) is falling sharply among employers across the world. He shows that 21st-century systems need to prepare young people with the skills to undertake non-routine analytic and, especially, non-routine interactive tasks. Schleicher's conclusion is: "The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also easiest to digitise, automate and outsource."

The implication of these findings is that systems need to prepare students "to deal with more rapid change than ever before … for jobs that have not yet been created … using technologies that have not yet been invented". This is about learning how to learn, and new ways of thinking that involve creativity, critical thinking, problem-solving and decision-making. It is in sharp contrast to an emphasis on the capacity to reproduce facts. Reducing the debate into a "skills v knowledge" dichotomy is manifestly false. The issue is the right balance between content acquisition, and the skills and dispositions needed to succeed in fundamentally changed conditions. This is the key message of Schleicher and the OECD's work. It is to be hoped that the current curriculum review is permitted to take this wider view.

For this is the perspective being adopted by the world's leading systems. Rather than relying on past achievements, they are reconceiving how they approach the future. Take Finland – always at or near the top of the Pisa rankings. The director of the Finnish board of education has described how their system has identified the key competencies for lifelong learning, and is setting about transforming their system to ensure they're acquired. Critically, this entails enabling learners to "undertake meaningful problem-based inquiry, which might be multi-disciplinary, supported by blended teaching methods and hybrid resources". The Finns aren't giving up on acquiring knowledge. They just know it's not enough.

Then there's South Korea, another "top performing" system. Perceived as exam-driven, cramming its students, Korea is set to change. Exploring the work of its very best schools has revealed that they focus on providing concentrated time for some subjects (rather than shallow drip-feed); on personalising learning; on evaluating creativity; and on experience-based learning. South Korea is basing its innovation agenda on the "three C's": creativity, collaboration and character.

And finally, take one of the most improved cities in the world in terms of education performance – New York City. Gove recently hosted the former chancellor of the NYC school system, praising the rapid progress made by the city. What he omitted, however, was that NYC has acknowledged its current set of school improvement initiatives is inadequate to deal with the challenges young people face. So it has a launched an Innovation Zone, comprising a distributed network of schools, specifically to test and refine new approaches to learning and teaching that are more personalised and emphasise higher-level skills.

So yes, let's join the global education community seeking out the best ways to make learning engaging and relevant to young people in the digital age. But let's do it with open minds, and attention to all the evidence.

Valerie Hannon is a board director of the Innovation Unit.


Thursday, February 3, 2011

World education rankings: which country does best at reading, maths and science?


The OECD's comprehensive world education ranking report, PISA, is out. Find out how each country compares

A pupil in a science lesson
World education rankings show how countries do atreading, maths and science. A pupil in a science lesson. Photograph: David Sillitoe/Guardian
The world education rankings from the OECD are out. The UK is slipping down in maths, reading and science, and has been overtaken by Poland and Norway, this major study of 65 countries reveals today.
Around 470,000 15-year-olds across the world sat a numeracy, literacy and science test last year, the results of which inform the latest Pisa study by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
PISA rankings within OECD
PISA rankings within OECD. Illustration: Paul Scruton for the Guardian
The Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) is highly respected across the globe, and enables politicians and policy-makers to assess how different country's education systems compare.
It shows the UK's reputation as one of the world's best for education is at risk, and has tumbled several places since 2006.
The UK is ranked 25th for reading, 28th for maths and 16th for science. In 2006, when 57 countries were included in the study, it was placed 17th, 24th and 14th respectively. Poland has stretched ahead of the UK in maths, while Norway is now ranked higher in reading and maths.
Andreas Shleicher, head of the Pisa programme, said the picture for the UK was "stagnant at best". "Many other countries have seen quite significant improvement," he added.

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