HONG KONG: Profit margins of Indian companies will be under pressure as rising coal prices force them to pass on the increase in cost to customers, according to commodity analysts present at the UBS APAC Journalist Forum in Hong Kong. UBS expects thermal coal's contract price to remain above $100 per tonne over the next one year.
"Domestic prices for coal in India is still 20-25% lower than international prices," Peter Hickson, global basic materials strategist, UBS, told ET on the sidelines of the conference. "But then, even a small increase will affect the bottom lines of cement, power and steel companies, which use coal in a big way."
Demand for coal in India has grown at 9% a year for the past five years. The country, along with China, will play an important role in driving up global coal prices. India expects power coal usage to rise from 400 million tonnes to 600 million tonnes by 2015. Apart from coal, crude prices will also play a major role in the corporate earnings of Indian companies. Analysts expect the effect of oil prices to start showing on the earnings from the April-June quarter.
"We're not sure where oil prices are headed," Mr Hickson said. "In normal circumstances, we expect crude prices to hover at $85-90 per barrel level but there are many concerns. The crisis in Gulf countries, tight supply environment and steady demand will keep crude prices firm."
Problems in Japan , volatile west Asia and "slower" economic activities in China could have an impact on the overall commodity prices. Crude oil, platinum, phosphate, lead and palladium are on the 'preferred commodity list' while nickel, steel, uranium and aluminium have fallen out of favour - at least in the short-term - for most commodity analysts.
"Cost curve will be up for most commodities over the next few years," said Andrew Ferguson, CEO of APAC Resources . "It'll not be excess liquidity alone that will keep commodity prices up; demand-supply gap and high cost of extraction will add to the overall prices. Raising interest rates to control commodity price inflation will not bring about a big change in prices."
Copper prices are likely to be governed by China's seasonal restocking, which should last till May. The recent spike in steel prices in US and Europe is largely driven by an increase in seasonal activity, low steel inventories and raw material cost-push. Analysts are worried that key-end markets like construction, infrastructure and real estate have not contributed much to the demand for steel.
Gold prices may benefit from lingering European Union sovereign debt concerns, rising inflation fears and the West Asian crisis. "Gold prices will be firm this year. We do not expect a sharp spike up, but a gradual rise in prices. I am bullish on gold as an asset class," said Mr Ferguson.
"Domestic prices for coal in India is still 20-25% lower than international prices," Peter Hickson, global basic materials strategist, UBS, told ET on the sidelines of the conference. "But then, even a small increase will affect the bottom lines of cement, power and steel companies, which use coal in a big way."
Demand for coal in India has grown at 9% a year for the past five years. The country, along with China, will play an important role in driving up global coal prices. India expects power coal usage to rise from 400 million tonnes to 600 million tonnes by 2015. Apart from coal, crude prices will also play a major role in the corporate earnings of Indian companies. Analysts expect the effect of oil prices to start showing on the earnings from the April-June quarter.
"We're not sure where oil prices are headed," Mr Hickson said. "In normal circumstances, we expect crude prices to hover at $85-90 per barrel level but there are many concerns. The crisis in Gulf countries, tight supply environment and steady demand will keep crude prices firm."
Problems in Japan , volatile west Asia and "slower" economic activities in China could have an impact on the overall commodity prices. Crude oil, platinum, phosphate, lead and palladium are on the 'preferred commodity list' while nickel, steel, uranium and aluminium have fallen out of favour - at least in the short-term - for most commodity analysts.
"Cost curve will be up for most commodities over the next few years," said Andrew Ferguson, CEO of APAC Resources . "It'll not be excess liquidity alone that will keep commodity prices up; demand-supply gap and high cost of extraction will add to the overall prices. Raising interest rates to control commodity price inflation will not bring about a big change in prices."
Copper prices are likely to be governed by China's seasonal restocking, which should last till May. The recent spike in steel prices in US and Europe is largely driven by an increase in seasonal activity, low steel inventories and raw material cost-push. Analysts are worried that key-end markets like construction, infrastructure and real estate have not contributed much to the demand for steel.
Gold prices may benefit from lingering European Union sovereign debt concerns, rising inflation fears and the West Asian crisis. "Gold prices will be firm this year. We do not expect a sharp spike up, but a gradual rise in prices. I am bullish on gold as an asset class," said Mr Ferguson.
source:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/rising-coal-crude-prices-will-hurt-corporate-earnings-profit-margins-ubs/articleshow/7840309.cms
